Wednesday, June 27, 2012

United Leasing Championship Power Rankings

This is a hard week to figure out who should do well and who shouldn't. On a course that has never hosted a Tour event, we have no past tournament results to look at. Without knowing much about how the course plays in a Tour setting, we can't really figure out how the course should play, or how it will set up.

Take the conversation I just heard. One reporter was talking about how the greens should be especially firm and fast this week - in light of the 100-degree heat expected. Joe - the Tour's media guy here - rebuked the argument, saying that the course will be constantly watered in order to keep the conditions reasonable.

In any event, we won't really find out until tomorrow. How the players decide to attack the course - and their level of success in doing so - will be the true test.

But with that being said, it does look like the course will play tough, with narrow fairways and fairly thick rough. The greens should be fast despite the consistent watering, and the course length of over 7200 yards means players will be hitting a lot of long irons into greens.

Knowing that reasonable predictions are hard to make at this point, it seems like players will need to be in control of their golf ball if they want to do well here. Errant shots will be penalized, and players won't be able to score well with so-so ballstriking.

So: who is hitting it well, and who tends to play a control type of game? With those questions in mind, here go this week's power rankings.

1. Casey Wittenberg

No-brainer pick, and I would be unwise not to make this pick. Wittenberg is obviously hitting it well - with his last two weeks being a T10 at Olympic and a win in Wichita - and ranks 12th in driving accuracy on Tour. The Oklahoma State product seems to have plenty of confidence in his game, based on his post-round interview after winning last week, and he shouldn't feel daunted by the Victoria National layout. Wittenberg won't get flustered if he makes a few early bogeys, and his name should be somewhere on the leaderboard come Sunday.

2. Duffy Waldorf

I talked to the 49-year old Waldorf last week in Wichita, and he seemed positive about the state of his game heading into the summer. Waldorf has been around the block enough - with four PGA Titles and over $11 million in earnings - to see plenty of tough golf layouts, and he should be excited at the prospect of playing at Victoria National

Waldorf said last week that he feels the PGA Tour suits his game better, in his mentality of playing a relatively conservative style of golf - in the face of most Web.com Tour layouts, which are set up to encourage low scores.

Despite Waldorf's mindset, he has had a number of good showings on the minor-league circuit this year, and is coming off an 8th-place finish in Wichita. And in his most recent PGA Tour appearance, he cracked the top 25 in Memphis, three weeks ago.

Waldorf is playing well, and he won't need to go too low to do well in Evansville. Sounds like a solid combination to me.

3. Joseph Bramlett

After a top-5 finish in Wichita, Bramlett's game looks to be in midseason form. The Stanford product has made seven consecutive cuts to date, and his 19th-ranked greens in regulation percentage bodes well for this week. I talked to Bramlett after his round Sunday in Wichita, and seemed completely confident in his game - with the full intent of fine-tuning his game this year, so he is ready to roll when he makes it back to the big tour.

With a big week in Evansville, Bramlett could all but assure himself of a return to the PGA Tour. His steely resolve and impeccable focus on the course should help him on the tough Victoria National layout, and Bramlett should flirt with the leaderboard all week.

4. Hudson Swafford

Swafford has been playing well lately - with three top-20's in his last five starts, including a win at the Stadion Classic and a T4 in Wichita.

The 2011 Georgia grad seemed loose on the course in Wichita, acknowledging and interacting with well-wishers all the way through. He may need to buckle down a bit to handle the testy Victoria National track, but his game is certainly in fine form. Swafford also played the course earlier in the year, so he has that going for him.

This may be a risky pick, but Swafford holds a respectable 65th ranking in Tour driving accuracy, and his 12th position in greens in regulation bodes well. If Swafford gets himself near the leaderboard on the weekend, he can make a run.

5. Lee Janzen

I just can't pick against a two-time U.S. Open champion on this tough of a track. Janzen did struggle to a 72-71 weekend in his T40 in Wichita, but has made the cut in 6 of 8 PGA Tour starts this year - and tied for second at the Web.com Tour's Stadion Classic in early May.

The Orlando resident shouldn't be too uncomfortable in the anticipated blistering heat, and should be able to hold his score around par for most of the week. Here in Evansville, who knows? Right around par could be good enough.

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