Bracketology: WGC-Accenture Match Play

Everybody's favorite bracket will be coming out soon enough, when the men's NCAA Tournament seedings are revealed in just a few short weeks. Nothing can compare with the hype and interest surrounding March Madness, as the each of the tournament's three weekends brings something special to the table — upsets in the first two rounds, quality match ups in the third and fourth rounds, and then of course the Final Four.

Although nothing can compare to the basketball, this week's WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship gives us a chance to brush up on our bracketology skills and have some fun making picks. The field for the year's first WGC event brings together 64 of the world's best players as deemed by the Official World Golf Ranking, although a few of the biggest names (Woods, Mickelson, Scott) have elected not to participate, with the busy Florida swing coming up in preparation for the Masters.

Unlike basketball, when it has in fact never happened, it is not unheard of to see a No. 16 seed knock off a No. 1 seed in match-play golf. It has happened before, and it will happen again. The question is whether or not it will happen this year — after all, the No. 1 seeds (McIlroy, Stenson, Z. Johnson, Rose) are quite good players.

That being said, here is my quick attempt at predicting how things will fare in this year's tournament, which starts tomorrow with all 32 first round matches.

Bobby Jones Bracket

This side is led by No. 1 seed Henrik Stenson, who of course had an incredible 2013 but has struggled out of the gate this season (best finish: T-28). Despite Stenson's recent struggles, this portion of the bracket isn't particularly strong, and I foresee Stenson making a run through his half of the Bobby Jones side.

No. 16 seed Kiradech Aphabarnrat has a fun name, but I don't see him giving Stenson a challenge in the first round. No. 8 Louis Oosthuizen and No. 9 Nick Watney are very good players, but they don't seem to be in particularly strong form (Watney has no top-25 finishes in six starts this season, and Louis missed the cut at Riviera). The top half is rounded out by Brandt Snedeker, Webb Simpson, Thongchai Jaidee and David Lynn, and I see Snedeker as the guy with the best chance to face Stenson in the Sweet 16.

On the bottom half, I expect seed to hold in the first round, with Jason Day (2), Steve Stricker (3, and making his season debut after his brother received a timely liver transplant last week), Graham DeLaet (6) and Welshman Jamie Donaldson (7) coming away with victories. Patrick Reed has played well for much of the season and will give DeLaet a challenge, but I feel like the consistent Canadian will limit his mistakes in match play. Billy Horschel will be a threat to Donaldson for sure, but his hot temper could hurt him if things go south early on.

That leaves Stricker-DeLaet and Day-Donaldson, and in the second round, I am going to go with the upsets. Stricker hasn't had the chance to do much game-mode practicing up in Wisconsin, and his rust will catch up with him. The Donaldson pick doesn't make much sense (the longtime journeyman has accrued the vast majority of his World Ranking points on the European Tour), but let's just say I've got a feeling.

Stenson over Snedeker in the Sweet 16, and we'll ride the Cinderella story with Donaldson over DeLaet — before reality sets in and Stenson takes care of business to move into the Final Four.

Ben Hogan Bracket

This side is led by Rory McIlroy, the sort-of streaky yet hyper-talented youngster who has the capability to win any tournament, anywhere, at any time — much in the mold of one Eldrick Woods. McIlroy's half of the bracket is filled with plenty of respectable names — Schwartzel and Westwood, Furyk and recent winner Kevin Stadler — but I still like Rory to make his way into the Elite Eight with ease.

The bottom half includes two-seed Sergio Garcia and three-seed Ian Poulter, but the centerpiece has to be the iconoclastic Jimmy Walker, stargazer extraordinaire who has unbelievably won three times in this wraparound 2013-14 PGA Tour season. Rickie Fowler, Bill Haas and Miguel Angel Jimenez also have been placed in this strong grouping, but it doesn't make much sense to pick against a three-time winner too early. I'll take Walker to meet McIlroy in the Elite Eight, which would be a heck of a matchup. In that setting, I will take Rory, setting up a Final Four battle of top seeds in McIlroy and Stenson.

Gary Player Bracket

Nobody questions the game of No. 1 seed Justin Rose, but it just seems like the 2013 U.S. Open winner at Merion has been missing something since his breakthrough victory. Rose's half of the bracket includes notables like Jason Dufner, Luke Donald and Ernie Els, and I don't foresee Rose having the firepower this week to make it all the way into the Elite Eight, unlike his fellow top seeds Stenson and McIlroy. I see Els taking down No. 9 seed Stephen Gallacher in the opening round, and the Big Easy pulling the upset over Rose in Round Two.

On the other side of the top half, No. 4 seed Dufner takes on Torrey Pines champ Scott Stallings, where I see the Duf channeling his dip buzz into a victory. In a second-round matchup between Dufner and either Donald or No. 12 Matteo Mannasero, I will stick with Dufner to keep it rolling, and then for Dufner to dispatch of Els to reach the Elite Eight.

The bottom half of the bracket is marked by No. 2 seed Matt Kuchar and No. 3 Jordan Spieth. Kuchar missed the cut at Riviera, while Spieth has been in contention seemingly any week he decides to tee it up, and the eight-player grouping lacks the overall firepower necessary to give Spieth a run for his ever-increasing money. Spieth should have no trouble rolling through Pablo Larrazabal, and then either Thomas Bjorn or Francesco Molinari, to reach the Sweet 16, where he will likely see a matchup with Kuchar.

I'll take Spieth over Kuch, and then Spieth over Dufner to keep his abundance of momentum rolling in the form of a trip to the Final Four.

Sam Snead Bracket

In the fourth and final bracket, the No. 1 seed is the steady-as-he-goes Zach Johnson, a Midwesterner with plenty of Ryder and Presidents Cup experience that should suit him well, in theory, in match play. The Iowan draws Richard Sterne in the first round (shouldn't be a problem), and should move easily past Hunter Mahan or Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano in round two (Mahan's game has strangely dropped off lately, and he seems like one of those guys who tries to peak his game for the majors, which are still a little ways off. I'm not sold on Gonzo.)

Potential opponents for Johnson in the Sweet 16 include phenom Hideki Matsuyama and former U.S. Open champion Graeme McDowell, along with long-hitting Gary Woodland and Martin Kaymer. I am a big believer in the young Matsuyama, and I foresee him rolling through his pod, and then dispatching of Zach to reach the Elite Eight.

The bottom half here is highlighted by two hot players in No. 2 Dustin Johnson (runner-up the past two weeks) and No. 3 Bubba Watson (winner last week after weekend rounds of 64-64). I don't see Dustin having any trouble with Peter Hanson and then either Victor Dubuisson or Kevin Streelman, although Bubba may have some trouble with either Keegan Bradley or Jonas Blixt in the second round. Either way, a Sweet 16 contest between Dustin and Bubba seems likely, and I'll take Dustin to get a bit of revenge from last week in winning the contest of bombers to reach the Elite Eight.

That leaves Hideki Matsuyama v. Dustin Johnson for the Elite Eight, and although I love the potential of Matsuyama, I think his youth will catch up to him in the tournament quarterfinal. Dustin to the final four.

Final Four

Based on my suspect projections, the first matchup will put Henrik Stenson and Rory McIlroy, and it's a tough one to foresee. If both make it this far, both are playing well. Each of these guys, when playing well, is nearly unbeatable. I'll give the slight edge to Rory here, for no reason other than I feel like he may have a bit more to prove, after a tough year in the big events in the 2013 season.

The second semifinal here is Jordan Spieth against Dustin Johnson, and you can't go wrong with this matchup. Perhaps even more so than Henrik-Rory, this contest would generate plenty of buzz. I'll go with Dustin here, as I envision him channeling his competitive advantage — experience in the biggest events — to score a tight victory in the final couple of holes.

Championship

Dustin Johnson v. Rory McIlroy. What a good matchup for the game of golf, and one that the PGA Tour, the World Golf Championships, and Accenture would surely love, in addition to plenty of fans on-site and watching on TV.

I'll stick with the hot hand and take Dustin Johnson as my winner of the 2014 WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship. He's probably the hottest player in the world right now, and in match play, that goes a long way.

Web.com Tour season gets underway

The PGA Tour season seems like it's almost half-over — Jimmy Walker has already won three times, after all — but the Web.com Tour slate is finally getting ready to kick off. The 2014 schedule for the developmental circuit gets underway tomorrow at the Pacific Rubiales Colombia Championship in Bogota, Columbia.

Whenever the Web.com Tour starts a new season, I am always intrigued to look through the field for the opening event, to see the eclectic collage of familiar faces and new names. You have the up-and-coming rookies hoping to use a season on the Web.com as a pathway to bigger and better things on the PGA Tour; you have veteran hangers-on, lucky to still have a place to play but hoping to capture lightning in a bottle; and so on.

Added to the mix this year is the fact that many players had to fight through Q school just to gain Web.com eligibility. Q school no longer serves as a pathway to the PGA Tour, so many of the top finishers at the December classic will be teeing it up in Bogota — not on the PGA Tour, as they would have in years past. As a result, expect stronger and deeper fields throughout the season on the Web.com circuit.

Speaking of the field and some of the names that caught my eye, one is Ryan Armour. The 38-year-old journeyman spent some time on the PGA Tour in the mid-2000s, shifted his way down to the Web.com Tour, and eventually lost status for 2013 after making only four cuts in a dismal 2012 campaign. When I caddied for Kevin Johnson in Springfield, Mo. two summers ago, we played with Armour in a practice round, and I'll never forget his reaction after shanking a hybrid shot into a pond on the par-5 18th. His frustration was palpable, and you could almost sense that he felt his game spiraling into a black hole.

But maybe the Ohio native found something in his time away from the circuit, as he tied for 26th in the final stage of Q school, good enough to earn decent status for the early portion of the season. Web.com Tour reshuffles occur early and often, however, so Armour and the rest of the Q school grads certainly need to make a few cuts early to keep themselves on the favorable end of the pecking order.

The always-amiable Jeff Gove (namesake of this blog, from way back when) also finished well enough at Q school to gain status for Bogota and, at least, the year's first few events. The perennial Web.com pro had PGA Tour status for 2013 but finished no better than 40th at the Canadian Open, and he is back on the developmental circuit to test his luck this time around.

In another interesting revelation, Swede Jesper Parnevik will be teeing it up in Bogota, making his first-ever Web.com Tour start. The five-time PGA Tour winner, ranked No. 30 on Golf World's "100 Best Modern Players" ranking, is 49 years old and is most likely using this season to tune up for a hopefully long and prosperous Champions Tour career. Parnevik has struggled with injuries through the later stages of his career, and perhaps he can brush them aside to churn out a productive season on the Web.com circuit, which has a tradition of giving exemptions to 49-year-olds as they prepare to turn 50.

My pick for this week? Mathew Goggin. The 39-year-old, on-again/off-again PGA Tour pro, has a recent history of starting strong during the seasons he is relegated to the Web.com Tour — beginning the year with a victory in 2011 and runner-up finish in 2013 (both when the season started in Panama). Now, perhaps Goggin loses interest in the Web.com circuit as the year moves along, but his superior talent does tend to shine early on. Look for Goggin to contend down the stretch at Bogota CC, and perhaps pull out a victory.

Round 2 at Pebble

The first round of the PGA Tour AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am has just been completed, after hard rains on Thursday morning pushed back the timely start of play for all groups. No matter, though. Second-round competition is set to start at noon ET, with Andrew Loupe the surprising leader after a round of 8-under 63 at Monterey Peninsula.

Monterey has proven to be the easiest of the three-course rotation to this point, with Pebble Beach showing its teeth in the opening round and Spyglass Hill playing as its usual demanding self. Five of the six highest scores in Round 1 were shot at Pebble, and the sixth (Brad Fritsch-77) was shot at Spyglass. Meanwhile, five of the six LOWEST scores were shot at Monterey Peninsula, with Loupe's 8-under 63 joined by Stuart Appleby, Jim Renner, Scott Gardiner and Richard H. Lee with rounds of 65 at Monterey.

Jimmy Walker had the best score at Pebble with 6-under 66, while Jordan Spieth and Rory Sabbatini led Spyglass shooters at 5-under 67.

With that in mind, here are three bold predictions for Round 2 competition today on the beautiful Pacific coast in Northern California: 1. Andrew Loupe will come back to the field.

Loupe is set to play Pebble in Round 2, and he will be tested by the demanding stretch of holes 7-10, all of which played over par in Round 1, in addition to the rest of the course. The 25-year-old rookie has yet to make a cut this season in five starts, and he was a beneficiary of good play on the easiest course (by far) in the rotation. Couple that with the sure nerves he is feeling as first-round leader, in a spot he is completely unfamiliar with, and the recipe is not good. I'm not rooting agains the guy buy any means, but I wouldn't be surprised if he is squarely in the middle of the pack once everyone plays all three courses and things truly even out.

2. Spieth will rise to the top.

Apparently rested and recovered from the ankle injury that bothered him over the weekend at Torrey Pines, where he was the 36-hole leader, Jordan Spieth will make a push toward the top of the leaderboard today. The spunky, fearless youngster is playing the gettable Monterey Peninsula course, after handling Spyglass with ease (five birdies, no bogeys), and a round of 62 or 63 is not out of the question. Anything over par from Spieth today would honestly classify as a major shock. This kid is just unbelievably good.

3. Cut line will stabilize

The current cut is projected at 2-under (72 players), but that is more a reflection of the score-able nature of Monterey Peninsula than it is the toughness of the rotation as a whole. Pebble and Spyglass are demanding courses which require precision and a solid short game, and the scoring for the first three days will be inflated by the inclusion of Monterey — a scenic course, yes, but not one of high-level PGA Tour difficulty. If the cut was made after the first round, 31 of the 72 qualifiers would come from Monterey, or just over 43 percent. Look for the cut to stay at 2-under through 36 holes, and maybe even through Saturday, when the cut will be made at the completion of three rounds.

Enjoy today's coverage, everybody.

Pebble ready to get underway

Bill Murray isn't in attendance, but that isn't stopping this year's AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am from getting underway this morning on the scenic Monterey Peninsula.

I had the privilege of visiting Pebble last spring on a post-graduation trip to California with friends Jack and Oren, and I was amazed at the access to the course given to golfers who don't want to pay upwards of $500 for 18 holes. We had no intention of spending a fortune on five hours of golf — even at Pebble — so we simply parked and began to stroll along the course.

I remember being amazed at seeing the narrowness of the 17th green in person, and of course I was blown away by the ocean backdrop at the scenic par-5 18th. We took a walk along the beach, chatted with course marshals, and watched a few groups go through 17. It was a great hour or so, and I resolved to someday make it back to play in person.

Aside from playing Pebble, this week is the next best thing, the opportunity to watch PGA Tour pros tackle the oceanside links. The field is always solid, with some notables including Phil Mickelson (playing Monterey Peninsula in Round 1), Dustin Johnson (Spyglass Hill), and Hunter Mahan (Pebble). The unique three-course rotation means that a true read on the leaderboard cannot be made until the completion of Round 3. Spyglass traditionally plays as the most difficult of the three, but this can always change year-to-year depending on course setup, wind direction, rough length and so on.

Also good to see Buffalonian Dudley Hart in this week's field, set to tee off today slightly before noon ET at Pebble. Hart has struggled to make starts on tour in recent years, bothered by a string of nagging injuries, and is trying to play on. He withdrew from last week's Waste Management Phoenix Open on Wednesday night, and we'll see if his body can hold up through three (or four) rounds at Pebble.

In any case, it should make for another interesting week of golf.

Back in the saddle

Hello, One Step Away. Long time no talk. A lot has happened since I last signed off a few months ago — a lot of unbelievable things, actually. But I'm back. So, let's recap.

The last time I posted on here, I was completing the final assignment for my post-graduation summer internship at Golf World, where I covered the Dick's Sporting Goods Open on the Champions Tour in Endicott, NY. I was excited about this for a myriad of reasons: I was having the chance to report live on an event for the magazine, I was returning to an event I loved growing up, and I would have the chance to interview my childhood hero, Fred Funk, the guy who essentially inspired me to pursue a dream of becoming a golf writer.

So I went, I watched, I wrote, and I interviewed Fred. All in all, a great time. Maybe Fred wasn't quite as friendly as I had envisioned, but in the grand scheme of things, there is no way he could have lived up to the expectations placed in my head. Not many childhood heroes/idols can, I don't think.

Although I was having fun covering the event, the experience was placed in the context that I didn't know what my next steps were. I had my college degree, and for the first time in my life I had no plan other than to go home to Buffalo and figure it out. I love home, I was happy to reunite with high school friends, and I was happy to be there for Bills football season (of course), but I was nervous. I never wanted to be the guy who came home from college a failure, coming up empty in the job search after my family invested so much in my education. It scared me, and it sickened me.

Making matters worse was the fact that on the Friday at Endicott, I received a rejection email from a small newspaper in Oneida, NY, where I had interviewed a couple of weeks prior. The rejection served to confirm my fear that I lacked the newspaper internship experience necessary to get a job as a sportswriter at a newspaper. It didn't make me quit the journalism job search by any means, but I knew that the clock was ticking. I wasn't going to stay unemployed forever — at some point, I would have to go into sales, insurance or something of the sort, just whatever I could get.

I have always been a firm believer, however, that life works in strange and mysterious ways (credit U2). On cue, when I received that Friday's weekly email from Syracuse with communications opportunities for graduates, I came across an opening for a sports editor at the Medina Journal-Register, a small paper in the Buffalo area. My heart jumped. In my 10 or so months of searching for full-time work as a writer, I had yet to see an opening in Western New York, the place I grew up in. People in journalism always say that being local matters, more than in the typical industry. At the very least, I had some sort of hope to hold onto as I prepared to hit the open road.

Things escalated quickly. I immediately sent the Medina publisher, Diane Crowe, a package of my writing and credentials, along with a cover letter describing how desperately I wanted to break into the industry. Diane responded shortly thereafter, telling me to give her a call on Monday. With a phone interview set up, I was able to head home with at least one lead.

The phone interview went well, and they invited me in for an interview on Wednesday. I met with most of the senior staff, and Diane promptly called on Thursday to offer me the job. It was long hours, little pay, and a far drive, but I didn't hesitate for a second. A job covering sports in my hometown area, where I could live at home for a while, save up money, hang out with friends and go to all the Bills games? I didn't think I could beat it.

The concerns were valid, but the job was awesome. It was a pleasure to get paid to do something I loved, and dealing with the coaches and players of the Niagara-Orleans League was truly an enjoyable experience. As I got to know my co-workers and the Niagara-Orleans community, I figured I would be content staying at the job for a year or two, cutting my teeth in journalism and adjusting to post-college life.

That was all well and good, until another curveball came flying my way. Golf World gave me a call, informing me that I could come back and work on a permanent basis if I would like. I couldn't believe it. I was having a great time working in Medina, for sure, but again this was an opportunity of a lifetime. I didn't start this blog for nothing. I didn't travel halfway across the country in search of stories on the Web.com Tour for nothing. Golf writing is what I have always wanted to do. I took the job.

So I gave my two weeks' notice at the paper, and I prepared to move back to the Connecticut region of the Tri-state area. I arrived back at the Golf World office and made my re-acquaintances, and I have been here for almost three weeks now. I have re-assumed many of the research/editing/administrative tasks that I performed over the summer, and I am now also editor of the print magazine's Tour Talk section. As an avid follower of golf's pro tours for most of my life, it is truly an honor and a privilege.

So what's next? To keep it simple, it's hard to say! I'm renting a room in Danbury on a month-to-month basis, just trying to get to know the area and meet people. Leaving home was hard, but my new region is full of potential and things to explore. I'm looking forward to it.

For One Step Away, I have every intention of maintaining the blog at any events I may have the good fortune of covering as time progresses. I will also write occasionally about various happenings in the world of golf at my discretion — I'm not sure exactly what the format will be, but I am open to any and all suggestions. Weekly features may be in order as we progress, but nothing is set in stone at the moment.

It's been a long ride, but the path is still in its early stages. Been through a lot, but still standing. As we approach the two-year mark of the inauguration of One Step Away, the beat certainly goes on.